Pirates Journal

I recently took part in the Pirates roundtable over at Pittsburgh Lumber Co.  The two topics being discussed were the Pirates’ chances in 2007 and Neil Walker.  Be sure to check it out as you get a wide variety of opinions on the Pirates all in one spot.

Freddy Sanchez was a second baseman for most of his minor league career but his big break came when third base opened up for the Pirates.  Now Sanchez is sandwiched between his primary position and the spot he filled in for in 2006 and as spring training starts, nobody is really sure how Sanchez is going to fit in.  So far in camp, Sanchez has been playing second but that could change if someone like Jose Castillo breaks out like a lot people thought he might.

The Pirates 2004 first round draft pick, Neil Walker is no longer a catching prospect, he’s a third base prospect.  With Ronny Paulino’s solid season in 2006, Walker is going to have a new avenue to making it to the big leagues.  Of course right now, Freddy Sanchez is in his way but we’ll see whether he becomes the regular second baseman or if Jose Castillo keeps his job.  Walker had a solid season at High A but then a rough time at Double A when he got promoted. 

Fortunately, Walker has played third before, it’s just been a while and it was still in high school.  Regardless, it should be interesting seeing how Walker does when he goes back to Double A in 2007.

The Pirates got some bad news pretty quickly when they found out 2006 first round pick Brad Lincoln will have to sit out for the next 2-4 weeks because of a forearm strain and irritation in his elbow.  Lincoln was picked as the team’s third best prospect and while he was set to start the season at High A, they were hoping he’d be ready to play with the Pirates some time in 2008.  If this injury is really bad, that time table will be blown to bits.

NBCsports.com offers some hope for Pirates fans in their preseaon preview.  With some bonafide hitters in Jason Bay, Adam LaRoche and Freddy Sanchez, the Pirates have some solid offense.  The big question mark is their young rotation.  At this point, the team could go either way, but like the preview says, the Pirates at least have something to build on and this may be the funnest season for Pirates fans in quite some time.

Chris Kline at Baseball America recently wrote up a nice story on Pirates signee and Cuban defector Serguey Linares.  He hasn’t thrown in a while, but the Pirates got him for only $125,000 so he’s probably worth taking a flier on.  And he’s only 23 but it looks like an injury has taken some mph’s off of his fastball so we’ll see how he does.  I think I remember reading that he’ll start at either High A or Low A so it’ll be interesting to keep an eye on Linares to see how he progresses.

The Pirates signed second baseman Jose Castillo to a one year, $1.9 million deal and avoided arbitration with the infielder.  Castillo did hit 14 homeruns in 2006, but he only had a .299 OBP and a .382 SLG so some plate discipline would probably do Castillo some good.  On top of that, fielding was an issue for Castillo and he finished the season with a -1 fielding runs above replacement (-22 fielding runs above average).  So his fielding cost the Pirates around two wins through out the year.

PECOTA looks for a small uptick in Castillo’s performance.  His weighted mean average has him at .264/.314/.407 with eleven homeruns and they have him doing a bit better on the field but still below average.  There is some hope though.  Castillo’s most comparable player is none other then Rangers All Star Michael Young.  I could live with that.

The Pirates have been busy the last few days and today they settled with infielder Freddy Sanchez.  Of course Sanchez broke out in 2006 and won the batting title.  Sanchez will make $2.75 million and prove to everyone that 2006 wasn’t a fluke.

PECOTA has Freddy Sanchez coming back down to earth.  His weighted mean average has him at .299/.345/.426 and even his 90th percentile has him at only .333.  Regardless, he’s a solid bat that can provide above average defense and at least in 2007, at $2.75, it feels like a bargain.

The Pirates settled two of the their five arbitration cases today when they locked up Adam LaRoche and John Grabow to one year deals.  LaRoche was the big one and he signed for $3.2 million.  The slugger of course came over in the trade that sent closer Mike Gonzalez to the Braves.

I like what PECOTA is predicting for LaRoche in 2007.  His weighted mean average has him at .283/.353/.526 with 27 homeruns.  I’d like to see him hit his 75th percentile, which would mean 29 homeruns and a .298/.370/.567 line. 

The Pirates also signed left handed relief pitcher John Grabow for $832,500.  Grabow has put up solid numbers the past two years and with Gonzalez gone, he’ll probably be the primary lefty out of the pen.  Call it a promotion by attrition.

The Pirates finally have someone for the back of the rotation and I personally like this signing.  Out of the guys like Tomo Okha and even Jeff Weaver, I think Tony Armas, Jr. has the most upside.  In addition, if you make him the fifth starter, you have a little more control over his innings since he’s had such a problem with injuries in the past.

The one thing I’m hoping for Armas is for him to get his strikeout rate up.  It was good but not nearly as good as his breakout season in 2001.  Even something in the middle 6’s per nine innings would be nice.  Regardless, Armas is coming off his best season since 2002 and that’s worth something.   Hopefully he can now build on that.